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Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has finally announced that the legislative election will take place on May 21st. This announcement comes after a period of speculation and against the backdrop of a highly polarized political landscape. The two dominant political parties are the conservative ruling party New Democracy and left-wing SYRIZA.
The recent Tempi train accident has exacerbated tensions between the two rival parties. Initially the government avoided responsibility for the accident, Mitsotakis instead blaming historical failures in the development of the Greek rail network.
This incident, coupled with his recent decline in the polls, indicates growing support for parties to the right of New Democracy, as voters look for other options as a protest vote.
It is crucial to examine the emergence of new far-right organizations and their potential impact on the Greek political milieu, which has otherwise remained relatively stable over the past four years. It is against this backdrop that one should analyse the new candidates seeking power, particularly the far-right factions, which have been gathering momentum in recent times. That way one can understand the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the Greek political system.
The conviction of Golden Dawn for operating a criminal enterprise has resulted in the party's removal from the Greek political landscape. The party's leaders and MPs were found guilty of serious crimes, including multiple murders, violent attacks, and racketeering. This led to the dissolution of Golden Dawn in 2020; its former members have since sought refuge in new political factions. The apprehension of those who had been evading arrest, such as Christos Pappas, the former deputy leader, demonstrates the Greek government's commitment to holding criminals accountable for their actions. Additionally, the government introduced new legislation that prohibits political parties with criminally convicted leaders, reinforcing its stance on rule of law.
Towards a Greek Solution
One of the political entities that emerged to fill the void created by Golden Dawn's demise was Greek Solution, a small far-right party led by veteran MP Kyriakos Velopoulos, which replaced Golden Dawn in the Greek parliament after it lost all its seats in 2019. Velopoulos managed to cross the 3% threshold with ease, while recent polls indicate his party's support to be at 4-5%. Greek Solution is very different from Golden Dawn. Velopoulos's party is a more moderate, less aggressive voice in far-right politics, occasionally voting in favour of bills and legislation supporting Mitsotakis's government, and actively participating in parliamentary discussions. Though rumours about a possible partnership with Mitsotakis were quashed in 2022, the party claims to be “open-minded”. Since New Democracy previously assimilated far-right parties, such as LAOS, in 2012, a coalition is not entirely out of the question, especially after the collapse of the ruling party’s popularity after the Tempi train accident.
Greek Solution's journey in Greek politics has been tumultuous. Party leader Velopoulos has spread conspiracy theories and disinformation about the global pandemic, attempted to profit from uncertainty during the first Greek lockdown in March 2020 by selling "anti-coronavirus" balms on his TV show, and claimed that the pandemic was a hoax. The Supreme Court intervened and forced him to desist. In recent years, he has adopted a full-throated anti-vax stance, stating that he does not wish to be a "guinea pig". Velopoulos's obsession with vaccination efforts is not accidental. He is an ultra-religious Christian Orthodox politician with strong ties to influential clerics, and recent reports have shown numerous links between the Greek Church and various anti-vax movements. Greek Solution shares many similarities with Italian far-right politician Matteo Salvini, who has similarly mobilized religious groups against Italy's vaccination drive.
Hellenes: A return of Golden Dawn?
The government's decision to implement a ban on convicted politicians is a significant step in Greece's political landscape, but it may not be enough to prevent the return of right-wing extremism. Recent polls indicate growing popularity for the National Party - Hellenes, a newly formed far-right party led by Ilias Kasidiaris, a former Golden Dawn spokesperson. Kasidiaris is conscious of his appeal to young far-right voters and has been involved in recent mobilizations in schools in North Greece. Despite his attempts to distance himself from his past, his strong influence in the Greek neo-Nazi scene and his rhetoric suggest that he has not changed significantly since leaving Golden Dawn.
To circumvent the ban, Kasidiaris announced that he is stepping down as Hellenes’s party leader, but what is more startling is that he has been replaced by former Supreme Court Deputy District Attorney Anastasios Kanellopoulos. This move raises concerns about the separation of powers in Greece, and the potential intertwinement of the judiciary with the executive. The fact that Kanellopoulos's brother currently holds the position of vice president of the Supreme Court raises further questions about potential conflicts of interest in Greek politics.
Undoubtedly, Hellenes is the de facto continuation of the extremist Golden Dawn. The trajectory of the party's manifesto is unclear, and raises questions about Kasidiaris’ neo-Nazi past. It remains to be seen whether it can surpass the 3% threshold for parliamentary representation. According to their manifesto, the party is stringently xenophobic, advocates closed borders, and emphasizes the supposed danger of Islam in Greece. The possible resurgence of Ilias Kasidiaris indicates a swift and alarming return of neo-Nazism to Greek politics. The party has attracted a significant number of former Golden Dawn politicians, including former MP Konstantinos Barbaroussis, who was recently released from prison, and Lampros Fountoulis, a former MEP.
At the same time, all convicted members of Golden Dawn have attempted to overturn their lengthy prison sentences through an appeals court trial that began in June 2022. It is worth noting that the original trial that convicted them took many years to conclude, and the resulting judgment spans a staggering 12,700 pages. The potential revival of Golden Dawn shows the judiciary's ineffective handling of the far-right threat, as numerous former politicians have sought ways to circumvent their incarceration. Despite Kasidiaris and other ex-MPs' unsuccessful attempts to secure release, potential parliamentary immunity could ease their re-entry into politics.
More far-right groups emerge
In addition to Hellenes and Greek Solution, various far-right factions have surfaced in recent times such as National Creation and Patrida. The emergence of these groups reflects the waning support for New Democracy, which has also suffered a blow to its popularity due to allegations of corruption and the wiretapping scandal, as well as the decline of freedom of the press.
Patrida is headed by Constantinos Bogdanos, a former Greek MP who was ousted from New Democracy. Bogdanos' long-standing history of anti-communist remarks reached a boiling point in October 2021, as he delivered a turbulent speech that was seen as the final straw in a series of incidents between him and the Communist Party of Greece. Despite repeated accusations of treason, Bogdanos continues to target and criticize the Communist Party.
Last but not least, National Creation is a coalition of two far-right personas also closely connected to New Democracy, pointing to the influence of established parties in these fringe factions.
Despite Greece's struggles with far-right extremism in the past, the combined percentage of these groups' poll numbers thus far has surpassed 10%, which is a very concerning development. It is yet to be seen if undecided voters could further boost these numbers, particularly as far-right voters have previously been underestimated in Greek polls. In the past, hesitant supporters of Golden Dawn were instrumental in pushing their party's poll numbers to 9.4% in the 2014 European Election, and a similar trend could unfold again, potentially bolstering Hellenes and Greek Solution's chances of forming a viable far-right parliamentary coalition after the upcoming election.
However, with the verdict on the potential full ban of Kasidiaris' party expected to be announced by May 5th, his political career may come to an end. If this happens, the future of Hellenes as a political party becomes uncertain, and the same could apply to other former Golden Dawn politicians, who may also face a total loss of political rights in the future. Regardless of the outcome, future legislation must account for the entirety of Golden Dawn, and take decisive steps towards suspending politicians who have been involved with the criminal organization.
The current question for Greek democracy is whether it is capable of withstanding the second iteration of ultra-nationalism in a decade. The re-trial of Golden Dawn and the advent of a new wave of far-right parties in Europe, serve as a grim reminder that Greece has yet to fully address its earlier blunders. The potential resurgence of Golden Dawn under a different guise is particularly alarming, as it could inflict serious damage to a nation still reeling from the impact of neo-Nazism during the turbulent years of the fiscal crisis. Whether Greece can inoculate itself against this resurgence remains to be seen.
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