Far Right Victory in Argentina: What Comes Next?

The results of the most recent presidential elections in Argentina, where the economist Javier Milei defeated on the second turn the Peronist candidate Sergio Massa, placed the country on the road of a growing global radical right, which has also expanded in Latin America in recent years, especially in Brazil, Chile and Peru. We are currently experiencing a “fourth wave” of the far right in Latin America. But each country has its own characteristics. For instance, Jair Bolsonaro and Javier Milei have enjoyed different types of support.

The movement led by former president Jair Bolsonaro (2018-2023) had critical support among the military and evangelical pastors. That gave the Brazilian radical right a consistency in its political organization which Milei lacks. Milei successfully presented himself as a charismatic leader for the radical right in Argentina, mobilizing thousands during his campaign, and creating a political narrative especially attractive to young people. But it will be difficult to translate the support he has on the streets into an organized movement.

Milei does not have significant political experience, and his party – La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) – has been active for no more than two years. During his campaign Milei used this outsider status by holding the political class responsible for the economic crisis Argentina is going through. But now that he must govern, his lack of experience poses a big challenge for him and his staff.

From campaign to government

Since his victory, he has assumed more pragmatic positions, distancing himself from some of the far-right conspiracy theories he previously endorsed. For example, during the campaign he claimed he would break off relations with Brazilian president Lula, whom he described as “communist and corrupt”. But, after his victory he sent a diplomatic letter to Lula, inviting him to his inauguration, and stressing the importance of the relationship between the two countries.  

During the first months of his presidency, Milei is implementing an orthodox economic adjustment plan, limiting spending in several areas. He also announced intentions to close or privatize public media, companies and agencies that depends on state funding. During the campaign, he attacked the “political caste”, understood to be corrupt politicians. However, when he delivered his inauguration speech in Congress, his attacks on this political caste stopped, and the primary targets for the economic shock were civil servants.

The strategy would be to attack labor unions, advance pro-market reforms and cut state spending. Labor unions have historically been strong in Argentina, and have adhered to a mixture of left-wing and statist (Peronist) ideology. Since its inception in 1945, Peronism has been a political movement aligned with a statist and redistributive ideology, often intertwining its political party with the national state itself.

The street mobilization of labor unions and social movements hindered the reforms of right-wing president Mauricio Macri in 2015-19, leader of the right-wing party, PRO. But now, Macri feels vindicated by the popular vote in favor of Milei, and a majority that voted cutting public spending, and against Peronism, the political movement which has governed Argentina for sixteen of the past twenty years. Most Argentinians seem to agree with Macri that Peronism and the unions are holding the country back.

This radical right administration is most likely to target the unions and social movements. In his victory speech Milei stated that “nothing can be against the law”, and made aggressive references to those who would “resist”. Similar sentiments were expressed by Macri, who labeled opponents of pro-market reform “orcs”, urging La Libertad Avanza's youth to confront them on the streets. When Macri referred to 'orcs,' he was describing a mobilization formed by sympathizers of Milei against protesters.

Support base

Milei has chosen his ministers from different sources: from people close to Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change), to the former governor of the Cordoba Province Juan Schiaretti, to the leader of America Corporation, Armenian entrepreneur Eduardo Eurnekian. He has also incorporated former Peronist officials.

Since assuming the presidency, Milei maintained a close relationship with Eduardo Elsztain, the owner of the hotel Libertador where he stayed during the campaign and where he organized his party meetings. Elsztain is an influential entrepreneur within the Jewish community. This is noteworthy, as Milei has forged close alliances with conservative rabbis from the Jabad Lubavitch community. He has repeatedly made references to the 'forces of heaven,' associating them with his leadership and movement.

This shows Milei benefits from the support of large corporations and previously existing interests in Argentinian politics, without which his victory would not have been possible. The far right in Argentina and Latin America, campaigns under the guise of rebellion and disruption, often leveraging outsider candidates to appeal to the youth, while receiving support from major corporations, a key factor in its success.

The support of the mainstream right for the second turn added to Milei the historic anti-Peronist vote; a vote that goes on the opposite side of Peronism. This is a situation that we have seen in other Latin American countries, were the far right associates with the mainstream right to influence government. While in Brazil the “tucano” (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB) and “anti-Lula” vote was transformed in support for bolsonarismo, in Argentina people who historically voted for Juntos por el Cambio became supporters of Milei on the second turn of the 2023 presidential elections. Every poll and qualitative study prior to the elections indicated that mainstream right voters preferred Milei’s proposals over Peronism, similar to Brazil. This situation explains the shift from the mainstream to the radical right.

The association between far-right candidate Milei and the mainstream right started in 2020 with the Covid-19 pandemic. Both the mainstream- and the far right rejected Covid restrictions, and called for a defense of “freedom” against the “tyranny of the state”, and what they described as an “infectologist dictatorship” represented by the center left Peronist government of Alberto Fernández. 

The future under Milei

Milei is not going to be able to do everything he wants. Although he enjoys a great deal of support, an important part of Argentine society is resistant to his policies, and he lacks majority support in either chamber of Congress with 39 out of 257 deputies, and 7 out of 72 senators. Between the first and second rounds, he increased his share of the vote by 25%. However, this was primarily a vote against Peronism rather than an endorsement of his radical program. This aligns with the similar percentage of the vote that favored the mainstream right in the two previous cases, ultimately electing him in the second round as a rejection of the center-left and Alberto Fernández’s economically failed government. Tensions exist between far-right groups represented by Vice-president Victoria Villarruel, a military lobbyist linked to military circles with ties to the dictatorship, and more liberal sectors of PRO, that have taken positions in the government. The conservatives, emphasizing their priorities in a cultural battle against the left, and the economic liberals, prioritizing structural market reforms, may engage in a power struggle to shape the government's character

In Chile and Brazil, the radical right centered anti-communism and security in their agenda. By contrast, in Argentina Milei put forward a radical neoliberal program to “chainsaw” public spending. Milei has skillfully used the high levels of inflation against the state and the ruling political class.

His presidential inauguration in Buenos Aires became a far-right meeting that included Vox politicians from Spain, Viktor Orbán of Hungary, Jair Bolsonaro from Brazil and Peruvian and Colombian hard right leaders. This has profoundly worried human rights organizations and progressive movements, in a country unique in the region for its reckoning with the crimes of the old military dictatorship.

The last measures taken by Milei’s government announce that probably, as was experienced by other countries governed by far-right parties, Argentina will change to a hybrid system between authoritarianism and democracy. As we have seen elsewhere, once they take power, far-right parties destroy democracy from within.