Abstract
Influx of refugees from low-income countries has sparked debate in high-income countries about the economic impact of migration. One relation particularly discussed is that between migration and crime. The literature on migration and crime has typically relied on the use of shift-share instruments to identify causal effect, a method which has recently been questioned. We circumvent this issue and estimate causal of effects of refugee influx on local crime rates by taking advantage of the Danish Spatial Dispersal Policy, which distributes refugees according to a centrally decided quota system, neither affected by the refugees nor the municipalities. Using the quotas as instruments for the influx of refugees, we show refugee influx does not affect overall crime, property crime, violent and sexual crimes or drug crime neither in the short run (one year differences) or medium run (five year differences). We show that gender composition of the refugee group matters for the effects, such that a larger share of females reduces the impact on local crime rates. We rule out that our results are driven by substitution in criminal markets between refugees and established immigrants or natives or by changes in reporting behaviour as a result of refugee influx.
The seminar will be held in room 1249 (12th floor) at Eilert Sundts Hus. The address is Moltke Moes vei 31.