Abstract
Natural resources might affect political survival both positively or negatively depending on the type of natural resource. However, few empirical assessments exist, and we aim at filling this gap. Exploiting a sample of 500 political leadership durations in 138 countries, and over a time span of 31 years, we investigate, first, whether oil and other natural resources affect political survival, and, second, if so, how. Our findings are strongly suggestive that polity type is a key determinant of the first question and resource type is a key determinant of the second: Natural resources affect political survival only in intermediate and autocratic polities (but not in democracies); and while oil and non-lootable diamonds are associated with positive effects on political survival, lootable diamonds and minerals are associated with negative effects. We relate our findings on the role of resource type to the dimension of 'technical appropriability', and include a discussion of potential mechanisms that could be driving our results.