Seminar with Jana Krause (University of Oslo)

 

How does exposure to political violence affect vulnerability to future violence? A growing literature in conflict studies considers the effects of political violence on a range of social, psychological, and political outcomes. Many of these recent studies, however, overlook the local contexts in which an individual is embedded or assume that the effects of violence move in one direction. Drawing on original survey evidence from Kenya conducted in July 2022, we evaluate a set of hypotheses about how exposure to electoral and communal violence interact with local peacebuilding practices to strengthen or erode community vulnerability. Broadly, we expect that

exposure to violence increases vulnerability to future violence by shaping a set of attitudes and behaviors that erode in- and out-group altruism, reinforce inter-group polarization, heighten threat perception, and valorize violence. Yet, we also expect that local peacebuilding practices can mitigate otherwise negative effects of violence, providing communities with the resources to restrain violence. Our preliminary analysis demonstrates that exposure to violence is linked to attitudes that indicate higher vulnerability to potential renewed violence, such as diminished trust in neighbors and non-locals, and heightened fears and perceived insecurity. At the same time, we also find that violence exposure is linked to practices conducive to the prevention of potential future violence, such as maintaining regular contact with non-ethnics.