Predicting the 2021 Norwegian Parliamentary Election

Who will the Norwegian election this fall? While no answer can be definite until election has passed, the large amount of available data allows probabilistic answers. In the past, media coverage of Norwegian elections and popular party support has focused on single polls or averages of polls at best. This is suboptimal, because each poll contains random noise and systematic bias, which makes it hard to accurately gauge how party support develops over time. Furthermore, opinion polls are snapshots and do not directly address the question of how support is likely to develop in the future. To make better use of the data, Jørgen Bølstad has developed a Bayesian model of latent party support and made the results publicly available at estimite.com. In his presentation, Bølstad will introduce the new model and its outputs, including some results that are not available online. He will also give a brief description of the project and how the webpage is built and updated.