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Abstract: Is there a tradeoff between defense burden-sharing and nuclear nonproliferation in US alliances? US assurances of protection discourage American allies from seeking nuclear weapons, yet many observers suggest these assurances may also reduce allies' incentives to invest in self-defense. Moreover, when presented with American requests to defend themselves, allies might prefer to do so with nuclear weapons. In this research note, I test whether US efforts to encourage allied burden-sharing increase support for nuclear weapons acquisition, using a survey of foreign policy elites from sixteen European NATO members. The findings suggest US threats to abandon allies unless they increase defense spending modestly increase support for nuclear weapons, but not as much as unconditional signals of diminished commitment such as a withdrawal of US troops. The findings suggest that the tradeoff between burden-sharing and non-proliferation is partly contingent on the method used to encourage burden-sharing.
Speaker: Brian Blankenship, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Miami
Speaker bio: Dr. Brian Blankenship is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, FL. He specializes in international relations, and his research and teaching interests focus on international security, international cooperation, and US foreign policy. He was previously a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a US Foreign Policy and International Security Fellow at Dartmouth College's Dickey Center for International Understanding. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University.
Discussant: Tongfi Kim, Assistant Professor of International Affairs, Brussels School of Governance
Discussant bio: Dr. Tongfi Kim is an Assistant Professor of International Affairs and a research professor in Asian Geopolitics at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) of the Brussels School of Governance (BSoG-VUB) and a senior researcher at the KF-VUB Korea Chair.