Deciphering the Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy: Questioning the Assumption of Policy Coherence

Dr. Tong ZHAO will present his Carnegie report titled "Deciphering the Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy: Questioning the Assumption of Policy Coherence”.

Image may contain: Glasses, Forehead, Glasses, Cheek, Chin.

To sign up for this online event, please register here.

All participants will receive a Zoom invitation in advance.

Speaker: Dr. Tong ZHAO, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Abstract: Significant shifts are occurring in China’s nuclear policy, evident in its evolving official narratives, capability enhancements, and operational changes. It’s crucial for the international community to comprehend the motivations behind these shifts. What do these changes mean for global security? How can the international community act to preserve both arms race and crisis stability? This presentation will examine the limits of technical factors, such as the impact of new U.S. military technologies, in driving the current Chinese nuclear buildup and will analyze how political-level factors are more directly influencing Chinese nuclear decision-making. This analysis questions the prevailing perception that China’s nuclear strategy emerges from coherent and carefully considered strategic planning. It offers policy recommendations on effective measures to reduce the risks of a nuclear arms race and potential nuclear conflicts.

Bio: Dr. Tong ZHAO is a Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He conducts research on strategic security issues, such as nuclear weapons policy, deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, hypersonic weapons, and China’s security and foreign policy.

He holds a PhD in science, technology, and international affairs from Georgia Institute of Technology, as well as an MA in international relations and a BS in physics from Tsinghua University. He is the author of “Tides of Change: China’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability” and “Narrowing the U.S.-China Gap on Missile Defense: How to Help Forestall a Nuclear Arms Race.”

Published Nov. 20, 2023 11:02 AM - Last modified Nov. 20, 2023 11:02 AM