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Speaker: Dr. Jacklyn Majnemer, Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Discussant: Dr. Do Young Lee, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow/Assistant Professor, Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo
Abstract:
Why do states refuse offers to host nuclear weapons on their soil? Much of the theoretical and conceptual focus of the IR literature on foreign nuclear deployment (FND) has been on the deploying state. When the motivations of a potential host state are discussed, the focus is on the strategic incentives to host or refuse. To fully understand FND, the role of the host state needs to be analyzed further. Dr. Jacklyn Majnemer argues that domestic political incentives are important for understanding host state motivations. In particular, the presence of anti-nuclear or nationalist coalitions can explain why a state would refuse an offer to host foreign nuclear weapons. This paper will use comparative case studies to develop a theory of host state acceptance and refusal, selecting cases of deployment and non-deployment of American nuclear weapons in NATO allies. Host state motivations are especially important for understanding nuclear sharing in NATO, which contains the most durable cases of FND. Using process tracing, Dr. Jacklyn Majnemer examines the decision-making that led to their respective outcomes. Given the low likelihood of a new FND without host state consent, understanding the causes of host refusal and acceptance are crucial for forecasting any future FND.
Speaker bio:
Dr Jacklyn Majnemer is from Montreal, Canada. She currently is Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Her research focuses on foreign nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements, as well as the causes and consequences of defection on alliance commitments.