Vegard Fykse Skirbekk

• Halkjelsvik, Torleif & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2024). Concurrent decline in teenage fertility rate and binge drinking? An observational study across 45 nations. Drug and Alcohol Review. ISSN 0959-5236. doi: 10.1111/dar.13867.
• Wolfova, Katrin; Frycova, Barbora; Seblova, Dominika; Tom, Sarah E.; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Kearns, Pavla Brennan (2024). Sex differences in cognitive decline among middle-aged and older adults: a cohort study in Europe. Age and Ageing. ISSN 0002-0729. 53(4), p. 1–10. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afae078.
• Edwin, Trine Holt; Håberg, Asta; Zotcheva, Ekaterina; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Jugessur, Astanand & Engdahl, Bo Lars [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2024). Trajectories of Occupational Cognitive Demands and Risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia in Later Life: The HUNT4 70+ Study. Neurology. ISSN 0028-3878. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000209353.
• Strand, Bjørn Heine; Håberg, Asta; Eyjólfsdóttir, Harpa Sif; Kok, Almar; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Huxhold, Oliver [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2024). Spousal bereavement and its effects on later life physical and cognitive capability: the Tromsø study. GeroScience. ISSN 2509-2715. p. 1–15. doi: 10.1007/s11357-024-01150-y. Full text in Research Archive
• Methi, Fredrik; Nes, Ragnhild Bang; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Hansen, Thomas (2024). The double-edged sword of becoming a caregiver: dynamic impact on four dimensions of well-being in Norway. BMC Psychology. ISSN 2050-7283. 12(1), p. 1–14. doi: 10.1186/s40359-024-01623-x. Full text in Research Archive
• Hansen, Thomas; Hynek, Kamila Angelika; McMunn, Anne; Nes, Ragnhild Bang; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Vollrath, Margarete E. [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2023). Emerging costs in a “hidden” workforce: The longitudinal psychosocial effects of caregiving during the COVID-19 pandemic among Norwegian adults. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology. ISSN 0036-5564. p. 1–10. doi: 10.1111/sjop.12986. Full text in Research Archive
• Medford, Anthony; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Strand, Bjørn Heine (2023). Trends in ages at death of Norwegian centenarians: the 1870–1904 birth cohorts. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. ISSN 1403-4948. doi: 10.1177/14034948231206529.
• Zotcheva, Ekaterina; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Jugessur, Astanand; Engdahl, Bo Lars & Bowen, Catherine [Show all 17 contributors for this article] (2023). Trajectories of occupational physical activity and risk of later-life mild cognitive impairment and dementia: the HUNT4 70+ study. The Lancet Regional Health - Europe. ISSN 2666-7762. 34. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100721. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  High levels of occupational physical activity (PA) have been linked to an increased risk of dementia. We assessed the association of trajectories of occupational PA at ages 33–65 with risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at ages 70+. Methods We included 7005 participants (49.8% were women, 3488/7005) from the HUNT4 70+ Study. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify four trajectories of occupational PA based on national registry data from 1960 to 2014: stable low (30.9%, 2162/7005), increasing then decreasing (8.9%, 625/7005), stable intermediate (25.1%, 1755/7005), and stable high (35.2%, 2463/7005). Dementia and MCI were clinically assessed in 2017–2019. We performed adjusted multinomial regression to estimate relative risk ratios (RRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dementia and MCI. Findings 902 participants were diagnosed with dementia and 2407 were diagnosed with MCI. Absolute unadjusted risks for dementia and MCI were 8.8% (95% CI: 7.6–10.0) and 27.4% (25.5–29.3), respectively, for those with a stable low PA trajectory, 8.2% (6.0–10.4) and 33.3% (29.6–37.0) for those with increasing, then decreasing PA; while they were 16.0% (14.3–17.7) and 35% (32.8–37.2) for those with stable intermediate, and 15.4% (14.0–16.8) and 40.2% (38.3–42.1) for those with stable high PA trajectories. In the adjusted model, participants with a stable high trajectory had a higher risk of dementia (RRR 1.34, 1.04–1.73) and MCI (1.80, 1.54–2.11), whereas participants with a stable intermediate trajectory had a higher risk of MCI (1.36, 1.15–1.61) compared to the stable low trajectory. While not statistically significant, participants with increasing then decreasing occupational PA had a 24% lower risk of dementia and 18% higher risk of MCI than the stable low PA group. Interpretation Consistently working in an occupation with intermediate or high occupational PA was linked to an increased risk of cognitive impairment, indicating the importance of developing strategies for individuals in physically demanding occupations to prevent cognitive impairment.

• Wörn, Jonathan; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2023). Job loss and psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national prospective cohort study. BMC Public Health. ISSN 1471-2458. 23(1), p. 1–6. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16303-5.
• Zotcheva, Ekaterina; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Bowen, Catherine E; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Jugessur, Astanand & Engdahl, Bo Lars [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2023). Retirement age and disability status as pathways to later-life cognitive impairment: Evidence from the Norwegian HUNT Study linked with Norwegian population registers. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry. ISSN 0885-6230. 38(7), p. 1–10. doi: 10.1002/gps.5967. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background Research shows that retirement age is associated with later-life cognition but has not sufficiently distinguished between retirement pathways. We examined how retirement age was associated with later-life dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) for people who retired via the disability pathway (received a disability pension prior to old-age pension eligibility) and those who retired via the standard pathway. Methods The study sample comprised 7210 participants from the Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4 70+, 2017–2019) who had worked for at least one year in 1967–2019, worked until age 55+, and retired before HUNT4. Dementia and MCI were clinically assessed in HUNT4 70+ when participants were aged 69–85 years. Historical data on participants' retirement age and pathway were retrieved from population registers. We used multinomial regression to assess the dementia/MCI risk for women and men retiring via the disability pathway, or early (<67 years), on-time (age 67, old-age pension eligibility) or late (age 68+) via the standard pathway. Results In our study sample, 9.5% had dementia, 35.3% had MCI, and 28.1% retired via the disability pathway. The disability retirement group had an elevated risk of dementia compared to the on-time standard retirement group (relative risk ratio [RRR]: 1.64, 95% CI 1.14–2.37 for women, 1.70, 95% CI 1.17–2.48 for men). MCI risk was lower among men who retired late versus on-time (RRR, 0.76, 95% CI 0.61–0.95). Conclusion Disability retirees should be monitored more closely, and preventive policies should be considered to minimize the dementia risk observed among this group of retirees.

• Hynek, Kamila Angelika; Gotehus, Aslaug; Methi, Fredrik; Nes, Ragnhild Bang; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Hansen, Thomas (2023). Caregiving + Migrant Background = Double Jeopardy? Associations between Caregiving and Physical and Psychological Health According to Migrant Backgrounds in Norway. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH). ISSN 1661-7827. 20(10). doi: 10.3390/ijerph20105800. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Informal caregiving can have detrimental consequences for physical and psychological health, but the impacts are highly heterogenous. A largely ignored question is whether these impacts differ with migrant backgrounds, and whether caregiving and a migrant background combine to create double jeopardy. We explored these questions using large-scale data that allows stratification by sex, regional background, and types (inside vs. outside of household) of caregivers. We used cross-sectional 2021 data collected from two Norwegian counties as part of the Norwegian Counties Public Health Survey (N = 133,705, RR = 43%, age 18+). The outcomes include subjective health, mental health, and subjective well-being. The findings show that both caregiving, especially in-household caregiving, and a migrant background relate to lower physical–psychological health. In bivariate analysis, non-Western caregivers, women particularly, reported poorer mental health and subjective well-being (but not physical health) than other caregiver groups. After controlling for background characteristics, however, no interaction exists between caregiver status and migrant background status. Although the evidence does not suggest double jeopardy for migrant caregivers, caution is warranted due to the likely underrepresentation of the most vulnerable caregivers of migrant backgrounds. Continued surveillance of caregiver burden and distress among people of migrant backgrounds is critical to develop successful preventive and supportive intervention strategies for this group, yet this aim hinges on a more inclusive representation of minorities in future surveys.

• Chang, Milan; Michelet, Mona; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter & Sund, Erik Reidar [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2023). Trends in the use of home care services among Norwegians 70+ and projections towards 2050: The HUNT study 1995–2017. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences. ISSN 0283-9318. 37(3), p. 752–765. doi: 10.1111/scs.13158. Full text in Research Archive
• Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Strand, Bjørn Heine (2023). Subjective age and the association with intrinsic capacity, functional ability, and health among older adults in Norway. European Journal of Ageing. ISSN 1613-9372. 20(4), p. 1–10. doi: 10.1007/s10433-023-00753-2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study investigates the relationships between subjective age, intrinsic capacity, functional ability and health among Norwegians aged 60 years and older. The Norwegian Survey of Health and Ageing (NORSE) is a population-based, cross-sectional study of home-dwelling individuals aged 60–96 years in the former county of Oppland. Age- and sex-adjusted regression models were used to investigate the gap between subjective and chronological age and this gap’s association with self-reported and objectively measured intrinsic capacity (covering all six sub domains defined by WHO), health, and functional ability among 817 NORSE participants. The results show most participants felt younger than their chronological age (86.5%), while relatively few felt the same as their chronological age (8.3%) or older (5.2%). The mean subjective age was 13.8 years lower than mean chronological age. Participants with incontinence, poor vision, or poor hearing felt 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.6, 5.5)], 2.9 [95% CI (0.2, 5.6)], and 2.9 [95% CI (0.3, 5.5)] years older, respectively, than participants without those conditions, whereas none of the following factors—anxiety, depression, chronic disease, Short Physical Performance Battery score, grip strength, cognition, or frailty—significantly had an impact on the gap. In line with prior research, this study finds that feeling considerably younger than one’s chronological age is common at older ages. However, those with poor hearing, poor vision, and incontinence felt less young compared to those not having these conditions. These relationships may exert undesirable effects on vitality and autonomy, which are considered key factors of intrinsic capacity and healthy ageing.

• Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Røgeberg, Ole & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2023). The Relevance of Cognition in the Context of Population Aging. In Bloom, David E.; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso & Sunde, Uwe (Ed.), The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Ageing. Routledge. ISSN 9780367713324.
• Blekesaune, Morten & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Does forming a nuclear family increase religiosity? Longitudinal evidence from the British Household Panel Survey. European Sociological Review. ISSN 0266-7215. 39(4), p. 663–675. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcac060. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogi, Ryohei; Esteve, Albert & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). The Decline of Spanish Fertility: The Role of Religion. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 38, p. 1333–1346. doi: 10.1007/s10680-022-09644-1.
• Wolfova, Katrin; Wu, Di; Weiss, Jordan; Cermakova, Pavla; Kohler, Hans-Peter & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2022). Sons and parental cognition in mid-life and older adulthood. Journal of Psychiatric Research. ISSN 0022-3956. 156, p. 284–290. doi: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2022.10.026.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Bowen, Catherine E; Håberg, Asta; Jugessur, Astanand; Engdahl, Bo Lars & Bratsberg, Bernt Magne [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2022). Marital Histories and Associations With Later-Life Dementia and Mild Cognitive Impairment Risk in the HUNT4 70+ Study in Norway. Journal of Aging and Health. ISSN 0898-2643. 35(7-8), p. 543–555. doi: 10.1177/08982643221131926. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Objectives: Earlier studies suggest that being married in later life protects against dementia, and that being single in old age increases the risk of dementia. In this study, we examine midlife marital status trajectories and their association with dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at ages 70 plus using a large population based sample from Norway. Methods: Based on a general population sample linked to population registries (N = 8706), we used multinomial logistic regression to examine the associations between six types of marital trajectories (unmarried, continuously divorced, intermittently divorced, widowed, continuously married, intermittently married) between age 44 and 68 years from national registries and a clinical dementia or a MCI diagnosis after age 70. We estimated relative risk ratios (RRR) and used mediation analyses adjusting for education, number of children, smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes, mental distress, and having no close friends in midlife. Inverse probability weighting and multiple imputations were applied. The population attributable fraction was estimated to assess the potential reduction in dementia cases due to marital histories. Results: Overall, 11.6% of the participants were diagnosed with dementia and 35.3% with MCI. Dementia prevalence was lowest among the continuously married (11.2%). Adjusting for confounders, the risk of dementia was higher for the unmarried (RRR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.24, 2.40), continuously divorced (RRR = 1.66; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.43), and intermittently divorced (RRR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.06) compared to the continuously married. In general, marital trajectory was less associated with MCI than with dementia. In the counterfactual scenario, where all participants had the same risk of receiving a dementia diagnosis as the continuously married group, there would be 6.0% fewer dementia cases. Discussion: Our data confirm that staying married in midlife is associated with a lower risk of dementia and that divorced people account for a substantial share of dementia cases.

• Peri-Rotem, Nitzan & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Religiosity, Sex Frequency, and Sexual Satisfaction in Britain: Evidence from the Third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal). Journal of Sex Research. ISSN 0022-4499. 60(1), p. 13–35. doi: 10.1080/00224499.2022.2108745. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Previous studies on the relationship between religiosity and sexual behavior have yielded mixed results, partly due to variations by gender and marital status. Furthermore, less is known about this relationship in relatively secularized societies, as in the case of Britain. In this study, we used data from the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) to explore the link between religiosity (11% of men and 16% of women stated that religion and religious beliefs were very important to them) and sex frequency and satisfaction among men and women in different types of relationships. Women and men who saw religion as more important in their lives reported having less sex on average, though this was mainly driven by the significantly lower sex frequency among non-cohabiting religious individuals compared to their less religious peers. At the same time, religiosity was linked with overall higher levels of sex life satisfaction. This relationship appeared to be largely mediated by attitudes on the appropriate context for sexual intercourse. These findings highlight the importance of sociocultural norms in shaping sexual behavior and sexual satisfaction.

• Bonsang, Eric & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Does Childbearing Affect Cognitive Health in Later Life? Evidence From an Instrumental Variable Approach. Demography. ISSN 0070-3370. 59(3), p. 975–994. doi: 10.1215/00703370-9930490. Full text in Research Archive
• Jørgensen, Astrid Ytrehus; Aarhus, Lisa; Engdahl, Bo Lars; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind (2022). Hearing loss, sick leave, and disability pension. Findings from the HUNT follow-up study. BMC Public Health. ISSN 1471-2458. 22. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13760-2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background Evidence on the association between hearing loss and sick leave or disability pension is to a great extent based on few cross-sectional studies and remains unclear. We aim to assess the associations in a long-term follow-up population study. Methods We used baseline data from a large population-based hearing study in Norway, the HUNT Hearing study (1996–1998). The sample included 21 754 adults (48.5% men, mean age at baseline 36.6 years). We used register data on sick leave and disability pension (1996–2011). Cox regression was used to assess the association between hearing loss at baseline (Pure tone average/PTA 0.5–4 kHz > 20 dB) and time to first physician-certified sick leave episode, as well as time to first disability pension payment. Results Hearing loss at baseline (yes/no) was weakly associated with time to first physician-certified sick leave episode: Hazard ratio (HR) 1.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1–1.3). Restricting the exposed group to people with both hearing loss and tinnitus, the HR was slightly increased: 1.3 (95% CI 1.1–1.6). Hearing loss in 1996–1998 was also associated with time to first received disability pension: HR 1.5 (95% CI 1.3–1.8). Stronger associations were found for disabling hearing loss (PTA > 35). Restricting the exposure to hearing loss and tinnitus, the HR was increased: 2.0 (95% CI 1.4–2.8). Conclusions This large population-based cohort study indicates that hearing loss is associated with increased risk of receiving disability pension, especially among younger adults and low educated workers. Hearing loss was weakly associated with sick leave.

• Kolk, Martin & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Fading family lines- women and men without children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren in 19th, 20th and 21st Century Northern Sweden. Advances in Life Course Research. ISSN 1569-4909. 53. doi: 10.1016/j.alcr.2022.100481. Full text in Research Archive
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Dieleman, Joseph L.; Stonawski, Marcin; Fejkiel, Krystian; Tyrovolas, Stefanos & Chang, Angela Y. (2022). The health-adjusted dependency ratio as a new global measure of the burden of ageing: a population-based study. The Lancet Healthy Longevity. ISSN 2666-7568. 3(5), p. 332–338. doi: 10.1016/S2666-7568(22)00075-7. Full text in Research Archive
• Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Wörn, Jonathan & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Longitudinal evidence on the development of socioeconomic inequalities in mental health due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway. Scientific Reports. ISSN 2045-2322. 12. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-06616-7. Full text in Research Archive
• Saarela, Jan; Hardy, Melissa & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Childlessness Among Heterosexual Partnered Individuals: Register-Based Evidence from the Finnish Cohorts Born 1952-1966. Journal of Comparative Family Studies. ISSN 0047-2328. 53(2), p. 189–215. doi: 10.3138/jcfs.53.2.030. Show summary

  Finland has been a demographic forerunner in terms of the adoption of new family forms as well as family friendly social policies. Childlessness has nevertheless grown and, is high compared to many other countries. A large and increasing share of all persons who live in unions are childless. Using population-register data for the cohorts born 1952–1966, we study persons who were partnered at age 45 (n = 44,321). The aim is to analyse how marital status and union duration, together with socioeconomic characteristics of the ego and the partner, relate to the probability of being childless at 45. Logistic regression models are estimated separately for women and men, using a 10-year retrospective window. We find for both men and women, the strongest marker for being a parent by age 45 is whether they are married and had lived with the same partner for at least ten years. Shorter union durations and cohabitations are associated with a several-fold increase in the likelihood of being childless. Socioeconomic characteristics are relevant as well, but notably less important in terms of estimated effect sizes. Future research on this topic should tentatively be concerned with how childlessness relates to transitions into, from, and across unions.

• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Bonsang, Eric & Engdahl, Bo Lars (2022). Childhood hearing impairment and fertility in Norway. Scientific Reports. ISSN 2045-2322. 12. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-04195-7. Full text in Research Archive
• Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Stergachis, Andy; Krish, Varsha Sarah; Chang, Angela Y.; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Dieleman, Joseph L. [Show all 50 contributors for this article] (2022). Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. The BMJ. ISSN 1756-1833. 376. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2021-068208. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Objectives To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors. Design Systematic analysis. Setting Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019. Main outcomes measures Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods. Results Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks. Conclusions Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervention programmes to improve wellbeing among older adults.

• Strand, Bjørn Heine; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Bergh, Sverre; Landmark, Brynjar Fowels & Wangensteen, Sigrid [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2021). Cohort profile: Norwegian survey of health and ageing (NORSE). BMC Public Health. ISSN 1471-2458. 21, p. 1–7. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-12294-3. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Purpose The Norwegian Survey of Health and Ageing (NORSE) was set up to provide internationally comparable data on ageing in Norway, which includes measured intrinsic capacity and cognitive function. Participants NORSE is a population-based health examination study of seniors aged 60+ from the 1921–1958 birth cohorts in the former Norwegian county of Oppland, interviewed and examined during 2017–19 (N = 957, 16% response rate). NORSE is to some extent based on the SHARE-questionnaire (share-project.org), which includes work-related information, self-assessed and retrospective health, and expectations on longevity, quality of life, volunteering activities, consumption, and financial arrangements. In addition, several objective measures of intrinsic and cognitive capacity are included in NORSE. Findings to date A shorter preferred life expectancy (PLE) was found to be associated with the prospects of a life with dementia and chronic pain. Motivation for retirement was found to be related to work-life experience and health. Social media was mostly used in the younger age groups and there was a tendency towards more use in the higher educational groups. NORSE incorporates questions on religion, and older women tend to have a higher degree of religiosity (proxied as self-assessed religiosity) than men in their 80s, but more similar (and lower levels) among those in their 60s. Future plans NORSE participants have allowed their data to be linked to National registry data and midlife health examination studies and thereby provide a longitudinal design as well as information on disability status, socioeconomic status, household and marital status, support to/from children and parents, and pension status.

• Ward, Joseph L.; Azzopardi, Peter S.; Francis, Kate Louise; Santelli, John S.; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Sawyer, Susan M. [Show all 50 contributors for this article] (2021). Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 398(10311), p. 1593–1618. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01546-4. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

• Bratsberg, Bernt; Røgeberg, Ole & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2021). Technology-induced job loss risk, disability and all-cause mortality in Norway. Occupational and Environmental Medicine. ISSN 1351-0711. 79(1), p. 32–37. doi: 10.1136/oemed-2021-107598. Full text in Research Archive
• Hansen, Thomas; Nilsen, Thomas Sevenius; Knapstad, Marit; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Skogen, Jens Christoffer & Vedaa, Øystein [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). Covid-fatigued? A longitudinal study of Norwegian older adults’ psychosocial well-being before and during early and later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. European Journal of Ageing. ISSN 1613-9372. p. 1–11. doi: 10.1007/s10433-021-00648-0. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  As the pandemic continues, many older adults are facing prolonged isolation and stress while having less access to traditional ways of coping. There is widespread concern that the situation is increasingly taking its toll on older adults’ psychological and social well-being. We use linear mixed models to examine psychosocial impacts and predictors thereof among older Norwegians in early and later stages of the pandemic. Longitudinal data were collected online in the Norwegian Counties Public Health Survey right before the pandemic and in June and November–December 2020 in two counties (baseline n = 4,104; age 65–92). Outcomes include loneliness (single item, UCLA3), psychological ill-being (worried, anxious, depressed), and psychological well-being (satisfied, engaged, happy). From before to three months into the pandemic men’s psychosocial well-being remained stable, whereas women’s slightly declined. Five months later we observe broad and substantial declines in psychosocial well-being. These impacts disproportionately affect women (all outcomes) and single and older individuals (loneliness only) and are not moderated by educational level, urbanicity, or whether self or partner are reported “at risk” due to health problems. Pre-pandemic low social support and high psychological distress predict relatively improved psychosocial well-being. Older Norwegians seemed to manage the pandemic’s early stage without clear psychosocial impacts. However, we observe notably compromised well-being during the second wave of COVID-19 in late 2020. Lessons learned about the nature and distribution of the psychosocial impacts of prolonged health-threats and social distancing provide valuable knowledge for intervention design during this and future pandemics.

• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Langballe, Ellen Melbye & Strand, Bjørn Heine (2021). Preferred life expectancy and the association with hypothetical adverse life scenarios among Norwegians aged 60+. Age and Ageing. ISSN 0002-0729. 50(6), p. 2012–2018. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afab113. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background: how long older individuals prefer to live given hypothetical adverse changes in health and living conditions has been insufficiently studied. Objectives: the objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between six adverse health and living conditions and preferred life expectancy (PLE) after the age of 60 years. Design: cross-sectional face-to-face interviews. Setting: population-based sample. Participants: 825 community dwellers aged 60 years and older in Norway. Methods: logistic regression models were used to analyse PLE, measured with a single question: ‘If you could choose freely, until what age would you wish to live?’ The impact on PLE of several hypothetical scenarios, such as being diagnosed with dementia, spousal death, becoming a burden, poverty, loneliness and chronic pain was analysed by age, sex, education, marital status, cognitive function, self-reported loneliness and chronic pain. Results: average PLE was 91.4 years (95% CI 90.9, 92.0), and there was no difference between men and women, but those at older ages had higher PLE than those at younger ages. The scenarios that had the strongest negative effects on PLE were dementia, followed by chronic pain, being a burden to society, loneliness, poverty and losing one’s spouse. PLE among singles was not affected by the prospect of feeling lonely. The higher educated had lower PLE for dementia and chronic pain. Conclusion: among Norwegians 60+, the desire to live into advanced ages is significantly reduced by hypothetical adverse life scenarios, with the strongest effect caused by dementia and chronic pain

• Storeng, Siri Høivik; Øverland, Simon Nygaard; Skirbekk, Vegard; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Sund, Erik Reidar & Krokstad, Steinar [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). Trends in Disability-Free Life Expectancy (DFLE) from 1995 to 2017 in the older Norwegian population by sex and education: The HUNT Study. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. ISSN 1403-4948. doi: 10.1177/14034948211011796. Full text in Research Archive
• Orlov, Sergey; Rovenskaya, Elena; Cantele, Matthew; Stonawski, Marcin & Skirbekk, Vegard (2021). Modeling Social Status and Fertility Decisions Under Differential Mortality, Dynamic Economic Problems with Regime Switches. Springer. ISSN 978-3-030-54576-5. p. 1–25. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-54576-5_5.
• Skirbekk, Vegard; de Sherbinin, Alex; Adamo, Susana B.; Navarro, Jose & Chai-Onn, Tricia (2020). Religious Affiliation and Environmental Challenges in the 21st Century. Journal of Religion and Demography. ISSN 2589-7411. 7(2), p. 238–271. doi: 10.1163/2589742X-12347110.
• Bourne, Rupert RA; Steinmetz, Jaimie D; Flaxman, Seth; Briant, Paul Svitil; Taylor, Hugh R & Resnikoff, Serge [Show all 50 contributors for this article] (2020). Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet Global Health. ISSN 2572-116X. 9(2), p. e130–e143. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30425-3. Full text in Research Archive
• Bratsberg, Bernt; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen & Skirbekk, Vegard (2020). Fathers of children conceived using ART have higher cognitive ability scores than fathers of naturally conceived children. Human Reproduction. ISSN 0268-1161. 35(6), p. 1461–1468. doi: 10.1093/humrep/deaa119.
• Kolk, Martin & Skirbekk, Vegard (2019). Fading family lines -Women and men without children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren in 19th, 20th, and 21stcentury Northern Sweden. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography. ISSN 2002-617X. 24. Full text in Research Archive
• Lima, Everton E. C.; da Silva, José H. C. Monteiro & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2019). Cohort Fertility Trends and Religion Affiliation in Latin America: a Glimpse Through Time. Journal of Religion and Demography. ISSN 2589-7411. 6(2), p. 252–281. doi: 10.1163/2589742X-00602004.
• Graetz, Nicholas; Woyczynski, Lauren; Wilson, Katherine F.; Hall, Jason B.; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen & Abd-Allah, Foad [Show all 50 contributors for this article] (2019). Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 577, p. 235–238. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1872-1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.

• Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Allebeck, Peter; Tollånes, Mette Christophersen; Skogen, Jens Christoffer; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard & McGrath, John J. [Show all 46 contributors for this article] (2019). Life expectancy and disease burden in the Nordic countries: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. The Lancet Public Health. ISSN 2468-2667. 4(12), p. e658–e669. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(19)30224-5. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background: The Nordic countries have commonalities in gender equality, economy, welfare, and health care, but differ in culture and lifestyle, which might create country-wise health differences. This study compared life expectancy, disease burden, and risk factors in the Nordic region. Methods: Life expectancy in years and age-standardised rates of overall, cause-specific, and risk factor-specific estimates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were analysed in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Data were extracted for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden (ie, the Nordic countries), and Greenland, an autonomous area of Denmark. Estimates were compared with global, high-income region, and Nordic regional estimates, including Greenland. Findings: All Nordic countries exceeded the global life expectancy; in 2017, the highest life expectancy was in Iceland among females (85·9 years [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 85·5–86·4] vs 75·6 years [75·3–75·9] globally) and Sweden among males (80·8 years [80·2–81·4] vs 70·5 years [70·1–70·8] globally). Females (82·7 years [81·9–83·4]) and males (78·8 years [78·1–79·5]) in Denmark and males in Finland (78·6 years [77·8–79·2]) had lower life expectancy than in the other Nordic countries. The lowest life expectancy in the Nordic region was in Greenland (females 77·2 years [76·2–78·0], males 70·8 years [70·3–71·4]). Overall disease burden was lower in the Nordic countries than globally, with the lowest age-standardised DALY rates among Swedish males (18 555·7 DALYs [95% UI 15 968·6–21 426·8] per 100 000 population vs 35 834·3 DALYs [33 218·2–38 740·7] globally) and Icelandic females (16 074·1 DALYs [13 216·4–19 240·8] vs 29 934·6 DALYs [26 981·9–33 211·2] globally). Greenland had substantially higher DALY rates (26 666·6 DALYs [23 478·4–30 218·8] among females, 33 101·3 DALYs [30 182·3–36 218·6] among males) than the Nordic countries. Country variation was primarily due to differences in causes that largely contributed to DALYs through mortality, such as ischaemic heart disease. These causes dominated male disease burden, whereas non-fatal causes such as low back pain were important for female disease burden. Smoking and metabolic risk factors were high-ranking risk factors across all countries. DALYs attributable to alcohol use and smoking were particularly high among the Danes, as was alcohol use among Finnish males. Interpretation: Risk factor differences might drive differences in life expectancy and disease burden that merit attention also in high-income settings such as the Nordic countries. Special attention should be given to the high disease burden in Greenland.

• Bowen, Catherine E.; Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad; Emelyanova, Anastasia; Golubeva, Elena; Stonawski, Marcin Jan & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2019). Living Too Long or Dying Too Soon? Exploring How Long Young Adult University Students in Four Countries Want to Live. Journal of Adult Development. ISSN 1068-0667. doi: 10.1007/s10804-019-09335-y.
• Hardy, Melissa; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Stonawski, Marcin (2019). The Religiously Unaffiliated in Germany, 1949–2013: Contrasting Patterns of Social Change in East and West. The Sociological Quarterly (SQ). ISSN 0038-0253. doi: 10.1080/00380253.2019.1593064.
• Saarela, Jan & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2019). Childlessness and union histories: Evidence from Finnish population register data. Journal of Biosocial Science. ISSN 0021-9320. p. 1–19. doi: 10.1017/S0021932019000257.
• Kinge, Jonas Minet; Modalsli, Jørgen Heibø; Øverland, Simon Nygaard; Gjessing, Håkon K.; Tollånes, Mette Christophersen & Knudsen, Ann Kristin [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2019). Association of Household Income with Life Expectancy and Cause-Specific Mortality in Norway, 2005-2015. Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). ISSN 0098-7484. 321(19), p. 1916–1925. doi: 10.1001/jama.2019.4329. Full text in Research Archive
• Azzopardi, Peter S.; Hearps, Stephen J. C.; Francis, Kate L.; Kennedy, Elissa C.; Mokdad, Ali H. & Kassebaum, Nicholas J. [Show all 24 contributors for this article] (2019). Progress in adolescent health and wellbeing: tracking 12 headline indicators for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 393(10176), p. 1101–1118. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32427-9. Full text in Research Archive
• Chang, Angela Y.; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Kassebaum, Nicholas J. & Dieleman, Joseph L. (2019). Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet Public Health. ISSN 2468-2667. 4(3), p. E159–E167. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(19)30019-2. Full text in Research Archive
• Engdahl, Bo Lars; Idstad, Mariann & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2019). Hearing loss, family status and mortality – Findings from the HUNT study, Norway. Social Science and Medicine. ISSN 0277-9536. 220, p. 219–225. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.11.022. Full text in Research Archive
• Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Abate, Degu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Bjørge, Tone & Knudsen, Ann Kristin [Show all 53 contributors for this article] (2018). Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 392(10159), p. 1859–1922. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32335-3. Full text in Research Archive
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Staudinger, Ursula M. & Cohen, Joel E. (2018). How to measure population aging? The answer is less than obvious: A review. Gerontology. ISSN 0304-324X. doi: 10.1159/000494025. Show summary

  Usually, population aging is measured to inform fiscal and social planning because it is considered to indicate the burden that an elderly population presents to the economic, social security, and health systems of a society. Measures of population aging are expected to indicate shifts in the distribution of individuals’ attributes (e.g., chronological age, health) within a population that are relevant to assessing the burden. We claim that chronological age – even though it is the attribute most broadly used – may frequently not be the best measure to satisfy this purpose. A distribution of chronological age per se does not present a burden. Rather, burdens arise from the characteristics that supposedly or actually accompany chronological ages. We posit that in addition to chronological age, meaningful measures of population aging should reflect, for instance, the distribution of economic productivity, health, functional capacities, or biological age, as these attributes may more directly assess the burden on the socioeconomic and health systems. Here, we illustrate some limitations of measures of population aging based on each kind of measure, including chronological age, and review alternative measures that may better inform fiscal, social, and health planning. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel

• Stanaway, JD; Afshin, A; Gakidou, E; Lim, Stephen S; Abate, Degu & Abate, Kalkidan Hassen [Show all 51 contributors for this article] (2018). Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. . The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 392(10159), p. 1923–1994. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6. Full text in Research Archive
• Saarela, Jan & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2018). Forced migration in childhood and subsequent fertility: The Karelian displaced population in Finland. Population, Space and Place. ISSN 1544-8444. doi: 10.1002/psp.2223.
• De Souza, Laeticia R; Queiroz, Bernardo L & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2018). Trends in health and retirement in Latin America: Are older workers healthy enough to extend their working lives? The Journal of the Economics of Ageing. ISSN 2212-828X. doi: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.03.008.
• Dicker, Daniel; Nguyen, Grant; Abate, Degu; Kisa, Adnan; Knudsen, Ann Kristin & Øverland, Simon Nygaard [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2018). Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 392(10159), p. 1684–1735. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31891-9. Full text in Research Archive
• Tollånes, Mette Christophersen; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Vollset, Stein Emil; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Øverland, Simon Nygaard (2018). Sykdomsbyrden i Norge i 2016. Tidsskrift for Den norske legeforening. ISSN 0029-2001. 138(15). doi: 10.4045/tidsskr.18.0274. Full text in Research Archive
• Eriksen, Hanne-Merete; Strand, Bjørn Heine & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2018). Helse hos eldre i Norge. In Grøholt, Else Karin; Bøhler, Linn & Hånes, Hanna (Ed.), Folkehelserapporten - Helsetilstanden i Norge. Folkehelseinstituttet.
• Nand, Devina; Naghavi, Mohsen; Marczak, Laurie B; Kutz, Michael; Shackelford, Katya Anne & Arora, Megha [Show all 168 contributors for this article] (2018). Global mortality from firearms, 1990-2016. Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). ISSN 0098-7484. 320(8), p. 792–814. doi: 10.1001/jama.2018.10060.
• McClendon, David; Hackett, Conrad; Potancokova, Michaela; Stonawski, Marcin & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2018). Women's Education in the Muslim World. Population and Development Review. ISSN 0098-7921. 44(2), p. 311–342. doi: 10.1111/padr.12142. Show summary

  Is Islam related to lower education levels for women? A key challenge for prior empirical research is the lack of data on educational attainment by religion at the global level. In this study, we bring together census and survey data from 151 countries to provide the first comprehensive global examination of religious differences in educational attainment by gender and birth cohort. We find Muslim women are less educated than women in most other religious groups and lag further behind their male co-religionists. Muslim women's educational attainment is lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where even among the youngest cohort (women 25-34 years old) two-thirds have no formal schooling. However, in other regions, Muslim women have generally been rapidly catching up to other groups and have narrowed gender gaps substantially in recent cohorts. Moreover, these gains have been widespread, with some of the biggest changes occurring in theMiddle East and in wealthier countries. Our findings offer insight into religion's possible role in women's educational attainment and provide important context to the debate over Islam and gender equality.

• Fullman, Nancy; Yearwood, Jamal; Abay, Solomon M.; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abd-Allah, Foad & Abdela, Jemal [Show all 110 contributors for this article] (2018). Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 391(10136), p. 2236–2271. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30994-2. Full text in Research Archive
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Todd, Megan & Stonawski, Marcin (2018). Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. ISSN 1403-4948. 46(2), p. 229–239. doi: 10.1177/1403494817733870.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Hardy, Melissa & Strand, Bjørn Heine (2018). Women’s spousal choices and a man’s handshake: Evidence from a Norwegian study of cohort differences. SSM - Population Health. ISSN 2352-8273. 5, p. 1–7. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2018.04.004. Full text in Research Archive
• Mokdad, Ali H.; Ballestros, Katherine; Echko, Michelle; Glenn, Scott; Olsen, Helen E. & Mullany, Erin [Show all 115 contributors for this article] (2018). The state of US health, 1990-2016: Burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors among US states. Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). ISSN 0098-7484. 319(14), p. 1444–1472. doi: 10.1001/jama.2018.0158.
• Patton, George C; Olsson, Craig A; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Saffery, Richard; Wlodek, Mary E & Azzopardi, Peter S [Show all 20 contributors for this article] (2018). Adolescence and the next generation. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 554, p. 458–466. doi: 10.1038/nature25759. Full text in Research Archive
• Hessel, Philipp; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Staudinger, Ursula M (2018). Trends and determinants of the Flynn effect in cognitive functioning among older individuals in 10 European countries. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. ISSN 0143-005X. 72(5), p. 383–389. doi: 10.1136/jech-2017-209979.
• Caron-Malenfant, Eric; Goujon, Anne & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2018). The religious switching of immigrants in Canada. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. ISSN 1369-183X. 44(15), p. 2582–2602. doi: 10.1080/1369183X.2017.1392848.
• Martinsen, Lene; Ottersen, Trygve; Dieleman, Joseph; Hessel, Philipp; Kinge, Jonas Minet & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2018). Do less populous countries receive more development assistance for health per capita? Longitudinal evidence for 143 countries, 1990–2014. BMJ Global Health. ISSN 2059-7908. 3:e000528, p. 1–8. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000528. Full text in Research Archive
• Skirbekk, Vegard; Potancokova, Michaela; Hackett, Conrad & Stonawski, Marcin Jan (2018). Religious Affiliation among Older Age Groups Worldwide: Estimates for 2010 and Projections until 2050. The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences. ISSN 1079-5014. 73(8), p. 1439–1445. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbw144.
• Bonsang, Eric; Skirbekk, Vegard & Staudinger, Ursula M. (2017). As You Sow, So Shall You Reap: Gender-Role Attitudes and Late-Life Cognition. Psychological Science. ISSN 0956-7976. 28(9), p. 1201–1213. doi: 10.1177/0956797617708634. Show summary

  Some studies have found that women outperform men in episodic memory after midlife. But is this finding universal, and what are the reasons? Gender differences in cognition are the result of biopsychosocial interactions throughout the life course. Social-cognitive theory of gender development posits that gender roles may play an important mediating role in these interactions. We analyzed country differences in the gender differential in cognition after midlife using data from individuals age 50 and above (N = 226,661) from 27 countries. As expected, older women performed relatively better in countries characterized by more equal gender-role attitudes. This result was robust to cohort differences as well as reverse causality. The effect was partially mediated by education and labor-force participation. Cognition in later life thus cannot be fully understood without reference to the opportunity structures that sociocultural environments do (or do not) provide. Global population aging raises the importance of understanding that gender roles affect old-age cognition and productivity.

• Bowen, Catherine E & Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Old age expectations are related to how long people want to live. Ageing & Society. ISSN 0144-686X. 37(9), p. 1898–1923. doi: 10.1017/S0144686X16000726.
• Hay, Simon I.; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M. & Abd-Allah, Foad [Show all 53 contributors for this article] (2017). Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 390(10100), p. 1260–1344. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.

• Vos, Theo; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen & Abd-Allah, Foad [Show all 62 contributors for this article] (2017). Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 390(10100), p. 1211–1259. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32154-2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  BACKGROUND: As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS: Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). INTERPRETATION: The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

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• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Decline and Prosper! Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 9783030916107.

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• Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Strand, Bjørn Heine (2023). Correction: Subjective age and the association with intrinsic capacity, functional ability, and health among older adults in Norway (European Journal of Ageing, (2023), 20, 1, (4), 10.1007/s10433-023-00753-2). European Journal of Ageing. ISSN 1613-9372. 20(1). doi: 10.1007/s10433-023-00757-y.
• Wolfova, Katrin; Wu, Di; Weiss, Jordan; Cermakova, Pavla; Kohler, Hans-Peter & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2023). Corrigendum to “Sons and parental cognition in mid-life and older adulthood” [J. Psychiatr. Res. 156 (2022) 284–290, (S0022395622005696), (10.1016/j.jpsychires.2022.10.026)]. Journal of Psychiatric Research. ISSN 0022-3956. 160. doi: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2023.01.048.
• Zotcheva, Ekaterina; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Håberg, Asta; Selbæk, Geir; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Sex-specific associations of occupational physical demands and dementia risk: the HUNT Study.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Understanding the Global Transition to Low Fertility.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). How should we prepare for an ageing global population? Podcast.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Over halvparten av oss kan bli uten etterkommere. [Internet]. forskning.no.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). What will a population of 8 billion people mean for us and the planet? [Journal]. New Scientist.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Elon Musk Is Totally Wrong About Population Collapse. [Journal]. Wired Magazine.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Centre talk: Why has fertility more than halved? .
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Social and biological drivers of low fertility.
• Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2022). Vegard Skirbekk on why we should embrace low fertility rates. [Business/trade/industry journal]. The Economist.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2018). Forced migration and fertility: the Karelian displaced population in Finland.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2018). Functional Aging.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2018). Which Sociodemographic Groups Are at Greatest Risk of Being Displaced Due to Automation?
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2018). Living Too Long or Dying Too Soon?
• Patton, George C.; Olsson, Craig A.; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse; Saffery, Richard; Wlodek, Mary E. & Azzopardi, Peter S. [Show all 20 contributors for this article] (2018). Publisher Correction: Adolescence and the next generation. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 559(7712). doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0069-3.
• Kassebaum, N.J.; Barber, R.M.; Dandona, L.; Hay, S.I.; Larson, H.J. & Lim, S.S. [Show all 536 contributors for this article] (2017). Erratum: Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1775–1812)(S0140673616314702)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31470-2)). The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 389(10064). doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32609-5.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Religion and Educational Attainment Around the World.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Culture and demographic development.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Extinction of family lines. Great-grandchildlessness in 19th, 20th, and 21st century in Northern Sweden.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Protecting Health in Hard Times: The Changing Role of Families in Mitigating Adverse Effects of Labor Market Shocks.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). The Leveling-Off of Secular Cohort Gains in Cognitive Functioning in Europe.
• Skirbekk, Vegard & Strand, Bjørn Heine (2017). Marriage, strength and mortality risk among successive cohorts of Norwegian older adults. Innovation in Aging. ISSN 2399-5300. doi: 10.1093/geroni/igx004.2417.
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Historical trends in health and retirement: are the elderly in Latin America healthy enough to extend their working lives?
• Skirbekk, Vegard (2017). Gender-role attitudes and cognition.
• Hessel, Philipp; Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse (2017). Poor health as a potential risk factor for job loss due to automation: the case of Norway. Occupational and Environmental Medicine. ISSN 1351-0711. doi: 10.1136/oemed-2017-104349.
• Øverland, Simon Nygaard; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Vollset, Stein Emil; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Tollånes, Mette Christophersen (2018). Sykdomsbyrden i Norge i 2016. Resultater fra Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Folkehelseinstituttet. ISSN 978-82-8082-960-3. Full text in Research Archive
• Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo; Tollånes, Mette Christophersen; Haaland, Øystein Ariansen; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Skirbekk, Vegard Fykse & Vollset, Stein Emil (2017). Sykdomsbyrde i Norge 2015. Resultater fra Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Folkehelseinstituttet. ISSN 978-82-8082-840-8. Full text in Research Archive

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