Multi-sector technology diffusion in urgent net-zero transitions: Niche splintering in carbon capture technology

Abstract: Transitioning to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century requires rapid diffusion of low-carbon technologies across numerous sectors. Multi-purpose technologies are expected to solve sustainability problems in several sectors. Given the mid-century deadline, diffusion of such technologies must happen in multiple sectors simultaneously instead of sequentially. Since different sectors have their own set of preferences, technical needs, and institutional characteristics, simultaneous interactions with several sectors increases the complexity of diffusion processes. We contribute a new perspective on the diffusion of multi-purpose technologies in the context of urgent grand challenges. Drawing on insights from the ‘niche anchoring’ and ‘technology speciation’ literatures, we present a framework that puts actors and their sense-making at the centre of the diffusion process. The framework is applied to the case of carbon capture in Norway, which has recently been applied in multiple new user sectors simultaneously. We find that diversity in needs, expectations, and technological solutions leads to increased uncertainty and ‘niche splintering’, which hampers rapid anchoring and diffusion of carbon capture. In addition to our framework for multi-sector technology diffusion, the paper also contributes by highlighting challenges for diffusing carbon capture to multiple sectors at the rate seen in many net-zero strategies and mitigation scenarios.

You can read the full article in the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.